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Major storms down

To the Adirondack Journal:

Gore’s ClimateReality programs perpetrate predictions of increasing hurricanes, floods, violent storms, droughts, etc. and blame it on CO2. However, the IPCC reports “low confidence” there has been or will be an increase in hurricanes or droughts, or that humans will contribute to any changes in these events in the foreseeable future! In other words: high confidence there hasn’t been and will not be increases in these events or human contribution to them. It seems strange to make predictions if they are of low confidence - unless they can be used to scare people.

Since 1910, the average number of major hurricanes striking the U.S. has been seven per decade. Each of the last five decades since 1960 has been below seven, averaging 5.6; the five previous decades averaged 8.4.

It’s similar for tornados. NOAA says Doppler radar, “has led to an increase in the number of reported weaker tornados… This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency.” NOAA’s data show a downward trend for EF3-EF5 tornados. In the 20 years 1954-1974, there were seven years with 70 or more strong tornados; in the 40 years since, only one year exceeded 70.

Note that the last 40 years have had the highest temperatures; the previous 20 years ran cooler (recall the ice age scare circa 1970?). These data indicate negative relationship between strong tornados and climatic temperature, and also between strong tornados and atmospheric CO2. Ditto major hurricanes.

One example of extreme weather is the blizzard of frightening reports, far more extreme than the underlying science they’re supposedly summarizing. One made a big media splash just in time for April Fool’s Day, another in early May. These reports are controlled by political appointees, who far outnumber scientists in the all-night sessions that produce the final wording.

Paul Gilchrist

Diamond Point

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